2012-6 Clark County Job Index

RCG’s June 2012 (12-month moving average) Clark County (Nevada) Job Index of 90.4 showed a slight uptick from May’s 90.2 (revised). Compared to June 2011’s 12-month average of 89.1, the latest Index improved by 1.3 points. While the Index has slightly improved over the last 6 months, it’s still largely the result of the local labor force falling rather than robust job growth. June jobs declined when compared to May (because of seasonality issues) but grew compared to June 2011.

In June, the Clark County’s labor force shrank by -1.1% (-11,100) compared to June 2011, while employment grew by -1.5% (12,600) during the period. Based on the payroll survey, job growth continues to improve, with 7 sectors gaining workers and 4 sectors losing jobs when comparing the two months. The month-over-month picture was a bit mixed, largely because of seasonable government jobs. The May to June pictured showed: 6 sector losing jobs, 2 sector remaining even and 3 sectors gaining jobs. The largest year-over-year gain was in Leisure and Hospitality with 6,200 additional jobs and the largest loss was in Financial Activities with a loss of -2,300 jobs. The first 6 months of 2012 definitely performed better than first 6 months of 2011. The YTD average monthly job total was 861,533 in 2012 (Index: 89.9) compared to 855,867 in 2011 (Index: 89.2).

What all of this tells us is that the Clark County economy is improving moderately, and that a return to the pre-recession (1990-2007) average Index of 98.4 will take some time. Please visit www.rcg1.com or call John Restrepo at 702-967-3188 ext. 401 to learn more about our services.

This entry was posted in RCG Blog. Bookmark the permalink.

Hot Air Over Gas Prices

Well done story by Dean Baker of the  Center for Economic and Policy Research and Bruce Bartlett, economist with the Treasury Department under George H.W. Bush, on gas prices:

By Dean Baker and Bruce Bartlett*

There is a serious risk that way too much time will be wasted in the fall presidential campaign on arguments over the price of gas. The issue is that we are paying close to $4.00 a gallon today, which is considerably more than the $2.50 or so that we were paying when President Obama took office.

No one can be happy about paying more money for gas, but the question is what President Obama or any other president can do about this. The answer, which may disappoint people, is not much.

Governor Romney apparently plans to make a big issue out of environmental restrictions on drilling that President Obama has imposed and blame these restrictions for the high price of gas. This is wrongheaded for two reasons.

First, President Obama has not imposed many restrictions on the energy industry. In fact, production of both oil and natural gas has increased sharply since President Obama took office. According to data from the Energy Information Agency, U.S. crude oil production has increased by close to 20 percent from around 5 million barrels a day in 2008 to over 6 million barrels a day this year. The story with natural gas is even more striking. Production is up by more than 25 percent from 50 billion cubic feet a day in 2008 to more than 63 billion cubic feet a day this year.

These increases in production are extraordinary by any measure. These sorts of increases don’t take place with an environmental dilettante in the White House. In fact, some of us may wish that he paid more attention to environmental concerns.

The other reason why the complaint is silly is that U.S. production has a minimal impact on the price of oil in any case. The price of oil is determined in a world market. Even with the increase in production over the last four years, U.S. output only accounts for about 9 percent of the world market.

If the oil industry was given its full wish list and allowed to drill absolutely wherever it wanted tomorrow it is almost inconceivable that it could increase production by more than 20 percent above current levels. And even this increase would take several years, since drilling in places like the Arctic Ocean off Alaska’s coast requires considerable lead time.

A 20 percent increase in U.S. production would imply an increase of less than 2 percent in world production. Part of increased U.S. production would certainly be offset by reduced supply elsewhere, but even if it were not, we would likely only see a reduction in the price of oil of 6-7 percent. This decline in the price of oil would save us less than 20 cents on a gallon of gas. And, this is a story based on assumptions that are almost ridiculously optimistic from the standpoint of the drill-everywhere crowd.

The fact that oil prices are determined in a world market that is largely independent of domestic production and consumption should not sound strange. There is a similar story with agricultural commodities like wheat. In the case of wheat, prices have risen sharply in recent years due to rapidly growing demand from countries like India and China. In this case, people in the United States still must pay more for the wheat we consume even though the country is a huge exporter of wheat.

The logic is simple; no one is going to sell their wheat in the United States for a lower price than they could get from India or China. The same logic applies to oil production. If we produce more in the United States, but world demand pushes the price of oil higher, we will still have to pay more for our oil. The fact that a larger portion of the world production comes from the United States really doesn’t make a difference.

There is one part of this picture that goes against one of the claims from President Obama. He has often implied that we would be able to get the price of gas down through conservation measures. While these measures may be desirable from the standpoint of curbing global warming, they also will have little impact on the world price of oil.

The U.S. consumes a bit less than 19 million barrels of oil a day. If it could reduce its consumption by 15 percent (a huge feat, which would require many years), it would be equivalent to adding 2.8 million barrels of oil a day to the world market. This would lower world oil prices by 9-10 percent. That could save us at most 25 cents on the price of a gallon of gas. This is also based on almost ridiculously optimistic assumptions.

It is worth noting that conservation measures will reduce the burden of high gas prices. If our cars get 40 miles a gallon, then $4.00 a gallon gas is only half as much of a burden compared to the scenario in which they get 20 miles a gallon. That may be a reason to prefer the conservation route, but it is not the same thing as cheaper gas.

The public should recognize that whatever measures we may or may not take to promote drilling or conservation will have little impact on the price of gas. Other factors should determine these decisions and politicians who promise cheap gas are just playing games.

–This article was originally published on May 30, 2012 by Politico.

*Bruce Bartlett is a former economist with the Treasury Department under George H.W. Bush.

This entry was posted in RCG Blog. Bookmark the permalink.

Testing…

Test of RCG Blog posts now posting to:

http://twitter.com/#!/rcgeconomics

http://www.linkedin.com/in/rcg1llc

This entry was posted in RCG Blog, RCG News Room. Bookmark the permalink.

facebook post

facebook post testing

This entry was posted in Power Broker Confidential, RCG Blog. Bookmark the permalink.

From Kyle Nagy at CommCap Advisors. www.commcapnv.com: RECon – ICSC Finance Update

We attended the RECon-ICSC conference this week and were encouraged by the overall upbeat tone of the developers, tenants and lenders in attendance. With interest rate indices at all-time lows, total borrowing costs remain extremely attractive.  Life Insurance companies are pushing to get more money into well positioned properties and will aggressively compete on rate.  A well leased project with a 65-70% Loan to Value request can command rates between 4.25% and 4.75% for 10 year fixed rate nonrecourse loans.  For conservatively underwritten Class “A” Apartments, Warehouses and Grocery Anchored Shopping Centers, lenders are willing to go below 4.25%.  With rates at historically low levels, many borrowers are requesting fixed rate, fully amortizing loans rather than the traditional 10/25 structure.  Some of our Life Insurance companies can offer rates below 4% for 15/15 and 20/20 fully amortizing loans. Conduits are back in full force and are competing for the loans that do not fit the Life Insurance model or need higher loan dollars.  Conduits are willing to lend up to 75% of value on lower quality or “story” deals and can go to smaller metropolitan markets.  The next six months should be an outstanding window of opportunity for borrowers to lock in great long term rates.  Contact us if we can assist.

This entry was posted in RCG Blog. Bookmark the permalink.

Nevada as Tax Haven

Aired May 2, 2012

Nevada has no corporate income taxes and that has made the state a tax shelter for some of the most profitable companies in the world. Apple has been generating so much cash that it’s set up an investment arm in Reno. Many other companies have holding companies in Nevada that are little more than a post-office box. So how has this happened? Is Nevada missing out on tax revenue? Or is the state depriving other states of revenue they need? KNPR 88.9.

This entry was posted in RCG Blog. Bookmark the permalink.

Higher Unemployment Rate Likely Despite New Jobless Claims

May 3, 2012

Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April is 8.6%. The BLS could report less of an increase on Friday — but not because of the latest jobless claims report, which shows a sharp decline during the most recent reporting week. That report reflects jobless claims that occurred after the mid-April time frame of the government’s household unemployment survey. READ FULL ARTICLE.

This entry was posted in RCG Blog. Bookmark the permalink.

THE GREAT RESET & LAS VEGAS COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Las Vegas’ commercial real estate markets appear to be finally stabilizing, albeit moderately. After four long and hard years, Southern Nevada’s economic recovery is now entering the “Great Reset” and slowly climbing out of the deep recessionary hole. As many of our indicators show in this issue of Economic INsight,we appear to have hit bottom. And this, we hope, will start benefiting Las Vegas’ commercial real estate markets, the topic of this issue. Click to get our latest Economic INsight: 2011-Vol. 5

This entry was posted in Las Vegas Commercial Real Estate, RCG Blog. Bookmark the permalink.

THE CRITICAL LINK BETWEEN WORKORCE DEVELOPMENT & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

RCG Economics and Dr. Alan Schlottmann, economist with The University of Nevada-Las Vegas (“UNLV”), recently published a “white paper” that assesses the opportunities for the Nevada System of Higher Education (“NSHE”) to increase its participation as a strategic partner in Nevada’s workforce development, job training and placement efforts in order to help create occupations that lead to a sustainable Nevada economy.

The issues presented in the white paper are part of an emerging discussion in state economic development policy circles, namely the role of job training dollars to promote and improve “internal” job growth among existing state employers. Concurrently, there is also the question of what restructuring is possible at the local level to promote enhanced employment opportunities for current residents through improved training efficiencies.

This discussion is occurring at an opportune time for the State and higher education given the focus on a sector (business clusters) strategy for training to promote economic diversification.

 The important links between higher education and economic diversification have been addressed in several recent reports.[1] Utilizing workforce training as part of these efforts broadens potential State strategies.

 A focus on enhancing the skills of the work force at existing companies is a significant shift in traditional economic development policy and thinking. Historically, most economic development has been focused on “external” or “new” growth. That is, how does a state “capture” a company in another state through relocation by financial and other inducements? Developing existing businesses has, of course, always been recognized as a valuable concept in general terms, but the implementation of specific polices to promote this effort has lagged relative to traditional economic development strategies.

 Thus, this white paper is focused on the notion of the “development” of existing companies in Nevada rather than economic growth per se (i.e., the relocation and attraction of out-of-state firms to Nevada). This distinction is more than semantics; it implies an attempt to utilize the strengths of the state’s business community and workforce as the basis for enhancing Nevada’s economic development potential.

 An important shift for higher education in the new training paradigm of State workforce initiatives is the ability to use training funds within an expanded concept of on-the-job training (“OJT”). Until now, state and federal training dollars have primarily focused on entry-level positions and basic job skills. Expanding OJT to include both technical skill enhancement and position upgrading through a “career ladder” allows higher education programs to be designed and funded as training programs directly for targeted business sectors. In general, training was traditionally in short-term training opportunities, such as basic skills required by, for example, the hospitality industry.

 Given the expansion of Nevada’s hospitality and construction sectors during boom times, these trainees could readily find a position. Now that an expanded concept of OJT is recognized as a “training activity”, it allows the conceptualization of new ways to use OJT for more technical and professional positions in support of targeted industry sectors to enhance the State’s economic development efforts. However, higher education needs to aggressively coordinate these new efforts with targeted business clusters.

 Due to the current economic situation, employers are unable to invest in sophisticated training programs that provide the needed skills in engineering, health care, manufacturing techniques or management. With new avenues for OJT, higher education can now become more of an active partner in designing advanced training. Advanced skill training within an expanded OJT program is a vehicle to incentivize employers, not only to upgrade existing employees, but also to hire those individuals with skill gaps that can be trained in lieu of “experience”, knowing that they will receive subsidized wages to provide firm-specific skills with a breadth and depth that has not occurred in the past.

Higher education can assist in designing these programs to assist with these initiatives. Rather than primarily investing in entry-level training opportunities which may not lead to a job, OJT, as a workforce development strategy in conjunction with higher education, can lead to relatively high wage paying jobs.

More importantly, a worker who upgrades his or her skills in engineering, health care, manufacturing techniques or management creates a “job opening” in the position that individual left. This allows another Nevada resident to fill the vacant position. In other words, training existing workers leads to a possible “two for one” employment opportunity for the State.

According to Higher educations can assist in providing these opportunities in providing enhanced “training for jobs”. However, this will require NSHE to develop new proposals for State and federal funding in a coordinated and more involved effort with the Workforce Investment Board. In addition, NSHE efforts may well involve program offerings that are not necessarily degree granting or traditional credit courses but an expanded role in certification.

Employers, nationwide and regionally, are having difficult times filling certain technical occupations with workers with the required skills. Fields like health care, information technology and advanced manufacturing have available jobs and solid career paths that are often not taken by members of the existing local workforce due to a lack of the necessary skills and qualifications. This highlights a positive aspect of the emerging workforce concepts for Nevada residents.

 Even with high unemployment, there has always been a “Catch -22’’ where many people apply for jobs but without the required skills. This leads to a public policy paradox where State employers recruit new employees from out-of-state; not helping Nevada’s  unemployment problems. Now a mechanism exists to directly tackle the skill mismatch.

It is clear that access to both higher education and OJT has become even more critical for employees to obtain the required skills and for businesses to remain competitive.[2] Related to the above is the increasing interest by state public workforce agencies during the last decade in the use of cluster-based strategies for workforce development as a way to more efficiently focus their limited resources, especially during challenging economic times[3].

 As presented in the white paper, several cities and states have worked with existing local employers to use training dollars to upgrade local worker skills. These efforts have been of particular note in Utah and North Carolina. The implementation strategies are designed
to attain the goal of creating quality job opportunities for existing members of the local labor force. Within the health care sector, some cities and regions have worked to utilize training dollars with existing employees to evolve nursing assistants into practical nurses, and then into enrollment in registered nursing degree programs at higher education institutions. This then allows the capture of the “two for one” employment change noted above.

These efforts are experimenting with new types of training to create strong linkages and interdependencies among industry and manufacturers, technical colleges and research institutions. In a general sense, this can be accomplished in four ways. Each requires an integrated State-industry-higher education partnership

  1. If an effective industry-higher education partnership can be established with well-defined programs for targeted economic clusters , providing increased dollars directly to higher education to design and implement programs in “hands-on” internship-based curricula can include training for traditional students and those “at work” in the industry.
  2. Industry sectors using training dollars to support employees with short-term educational courses developed in conjunction with higher education, or to utilize existing curriculum opportunities. Specifically, using “incumbent training waivers” for current employees allows the use of traditional training funds to provide skills for career advancement through career laddering for Nevadans in contrast to traditional training for primarily entry-level positions. This expanded OJT concept then creates new labor openings related to the vacated position.
  3. Leveraging workforce investment dollars with additional U.S. Department of Labor (“DOL”) grants designed to allow worker training. These include enrollment in degree programs or technical training at higher education institutions to avoid layoffs (for example, “layoff aversion”) due to increased job technical skill requirements.
  4. Using specialized training to overcome lack of required work experience of new job entrants that provides specialized skills unique to specific work situations.

However, all of these options require a level of stakeholder partnership and coordination that is generally much more integrated than traditional silo functions where stakeholders operated independently. The current economic situation provides an impetus to move in these directions.

The specifics of the strategic plan are then broadly implemented by the Nevada Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation (“DETR”). The two major regional entities are the regional workforce investment boards in Southern Nevada and Northern Nevada. These are, respectively, known as Workforce Connections in Southern Nevada and Nevada Works in Northern Nevada. Nevada received allocated Workforce Investment Act (“WIA”) dollars of approximately $65 million over the last biennium with an ability to apply for additional DOL training dollars.

Moving forward, the expansion of Nevada’s existing training programs to the four avenues identified above could include:

  1. Implementation of the sector/business cluster strategy identified by the Governor’s Workforce Investment Board, where higher education is included as an integrating function given the broader definition of OJT. This would allow information technology, healthcare and manufacturing, which includes selected renewable technologies, to utilize higher education as an upward “ladder” for existing employees with other Nevada residents filling in the prior position.
  2. Development of higher education programs to expand in a formal manner plans for certified worker initiatives in manufacturing. These programs would implement in an aggressive manner the “Dream It, Do It” vision for Nevada manufacturing.[4]
  3. Utilize the best of existing administrative and organizational programs that offer short elective courses to current employers or basic training seminars to develop both broad and formal training opportunities within higher education.  Examples of existing programs include the work in health care of the College of Southern Nevada and the manufacturing industry connections of NIE (Nevada Industry Excellence) efforts. These programs could potentially be integrated with degree programs at the State’s research institutions.

We believe that these opportunities represent a considerable amount of new ground with respect to required planning, implementation and coordination among economic development agencies, industry, and higher education in Nevada. However, these steps have the ability to move the Nevada workforce and its businesses forward into a better future. Accordingly, they warrant the effort. Such an effort is the explicit policy outlined in the Governor’s Workforce Investment Board plan in Nevada’s New Workforce for Economic Prosperity: Strategic Plan Framework 2010-2014.[5]

 This new emphasis in Nevada on “internal” strategies reflects the national fact that the majority of job gains are “homegrown” and occur in locally headquartered businesses[6]. Research from the Public Policy Institute of California shows that, nationwide, job relocations at the state level accounted for only 1.9 percent of job gains and 2.0 percent of job losses (based on the 1992-2006 data). Thus, the main sources of job creation and job destruction (contraction of establishments) occur “locally”.

To download the entire white paper click here: http://www.rcg1.com/publications-presentations/

White Paper #5 will also posted on the UNLV site at: http://go.unlv.edu/budget/docs


[1] “Nevada’s New Workforce for Economic Prosperity: Strategic Planning
Framework, 2010-2014.”, January 2010 Also see the two separate reports titled “Higher Education and Economic Development: The Necessary Foundation” and “Education and State Economic Growth: The Fundamental Linkage” at Office of the President, UNLV, http://go.unlv.edu/budget/docs.

[2] U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration’s Five-Year Pilot, Demonstration and Evaluation Strategic Plan for 2007-2012.

[3] Harper-Anderson, E. Measuring the Connection Between Workforce Development and Economic Development: Examining the Role of Sectors for Local Outcomes. Economic Development Quarterly, 22 (2). May 2008, 119-135.

[4] As noted at the Nevada Commission on Economic Development website (www.diversifynevada.com), this envisions an Endorsed Manufacturing Skills Certification System recognized by both The Manufacturing Institute and the National Association of Manufacturers. As pointed out by Ray Bacon, Executive Director of the Nevada Manufacturers Association, the new Nevada emphasis on innovative training for manufacturing is welcome.

[6] Kolko, J. “Business Relocation and Homegrown Jobs, 1992-2006”. Public Policy Institute of California. September 2010.

This entry was posted in Economic Forecasting, Market Research, Public Policy Issues, RCG Blog, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Commercial Real Estate

Commercial Real Estate

Commercial Real Estate Investing

The financial industry greats will be first to tell you that commercial real estate investing has the potentiality to bring in major profits. They may also gleefully tell you the risks in a number of cases completely outweigh the potential, particularly if they’re among the more wary speculators in the industry. People who have made their fortunes in real-estate however will tell you that investing in property is worth every ounce. of risk when you find a way to work thru the coarse patches and find your way to real estate investing fortunes.

Commercial real estate is rather unique among real-estate investment types. This is the sort of real-estate that needs a high investment to get into the game, way higher than most home property and poses similarly great hazards dependent on what you intend to do with your commercial real estate investment. Naturally you’ll also find lots of options for your commercial real estate investment that many stockholders find appealing. Most speculators find leasing office or building space to be the safest path to take when referring to real estate investing is the trail of leasing office space or warehouse space to companies. They feel this is a comparatively steady income stream because most companies wish to keep their locations so long as attainable.

Smart entrepreneurs are acutely aware that buyers, clients, and sellers have to be capable of finding them so as to conduct business with them and because of this, wish to keep their business in the same location whenever it’s possible instead of reestablishing themselves in different locations year on year.

Commercial real estate investing is a different animal than conventional home property that many people are way more familiar or happy with. You’re going to need to do lots of research before leaping right in with both feet with this kind of real-estate investment. Commercial real estate investments can take on many forms. From strip malls and outright malls to business and commercial complexes to sky scrapers and high rise apartments you’ll find all types of commercial real-estate interests. Whether your interests lie in business or private sorts of commercial real estate there are serious profits that stand to be made. Sadly , noobs frequently find the trail to commercial real estate investing loaded with thorns. You’ll need a huge contribution to support your commercial property pursuits and it’s potentially best if you can find a grouping of backers so as to share some of the hazards. Real-estate, in and of itself, is a high-risk venture. Commercial real estate bears a bit more of the hazards at the start however once you are established and folk, especially financiers, know your name you’ll find that trail to property wealth is way easier got thru commercial property, if you play your cards well than many other kinds of real estate investing. To make much bigger profits it is sometimes best to work as an element of a gang of backers when talking about commercial real estate investing. Not only will this approach spread out the hazards to a certain degree but also helps find the good buys, spreads the work pool, creates an environment of concepts, and permits you to bounce those ideas off each other looking for temperance and keenness for members of your investment group in like measures.

It’s a brilliant idea for those that are aiming to build a wealthy future in the domain of commercial real estate investing and can be highly lucrative for all concerned.

Commercial real estate investing can be highly threatening if you permit it to be. Avoid putting yourself in a scenario where you’re feeling beyond control or absolutely uncomfortable for your first commercial real-estate investment but if you have got the means, the price is right, the deal seems to be solid, and you are feeling you are prepared for the challenge, commercial real-estate profits could be a heavy incentive.

Commercial Real Estate

This entry was posted in Las Vegas Commercial Real Estate, RCG Blog and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.